“There is the problem of ammunition - the first side to have a shortage will be in trouble. “Who will be first to launch the next offense? What role will the weather play?” he wondered. Michel added there are as-yet-unknown factors that will determine the end of the conflict. “I would love to think the kinetic phase could end in 2023, but I suspect we could be looking at another three years with this scale of fighting,” Roberts said. Peter Roberts, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said there are different ways to define the end of a war: “the end of the kinetic phase” versus “the end of a Georgia-style frozen conflict or a Korea-like situation that runs for years.” But industrial capacities are spotty, and nations have started to scrutinize how much equipment they can spare while maintaining their own self-defense requirements and that of NATO.Īt the same time, election season in the United States - Ukraine’s most important backer - stands to spur arguments that a war in Europe of unknown duration is a costly nuisance for America.Ī Ukrainian serviceman adjusts a system through the scope near Bakhmut on Feb. Officials and experts expect a bloody spring, as Russia sends new conscripts to the front line and Ukraine tries to repel an offensive while mounting its own.Īs the war enters its second year, the spigot of military aid is still gushing. Milley has insisted the war will likely end at the negotiating table - at some point. “That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it’d be very, very difficult.” military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters during a visit to Germany last month. “For this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all - every inch of Ukraine or Russian-occupied Ukraine,” Gen.
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